Влияние погодно-климатических и социальных факторов на смертность населения от болезней системы кровообращения на территории России
Влияние погодно-климатических и социальных факторов на смертность населения от болезней системы кровообращения на территории России
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Аннотация
Цель. Изучить связи между стандартным коэффициентом смертности населения от болезней системы кровообращения (БСК) с факторами: погодно-климатическим (междусуточные скачки температуры воздуха и атмосферного давления по сезонам и за год) и социальным (среднегодовой доход на человека и число врачей всех специальностей) на территории России за период 1995–2015 гг.
Материалы и методы. По станционным данным и данным реанализа рассчитывали сезонные и годовые суммы междусуточных скачков температуры воздуха больше по абсолютной величине 4° и 6°С и атмосферного давления больше по абсолютной величине 8 гПа. Связи между климатическими переменными и коэффициентом смертности населения, с учетом социальных факторов, исследовали с помощью факторного анализа, включающего регрессионный и дисперсионный анализы.
Результаты. Годовые суммы скачков температуры (давления) разного знака сильно варьируют на территории: максимальные суммы в 3–4 раза превышают минимальные. Географическое распределение скачков температуры воздуха отличается от распределения скачков атмосферного давления. Суммы скачков температуры по абсолютной величине более 6°С примерно в два раза меньше суммы скачков более 4°С, но для них характерно сходство географического распределения. Сумма скачков температуры (давления) снижается летом примерно в два раза по сравнению с зимой. Максимальные суммы скачков наблюдаются преимущественно в северных регионах с низкой плотностью населения, но с высоким среднедушевым доходом, в то же время как минимальные наблюдаются в юго-западных районах Европейской части страны с высокой плотностью населения, а также со средним и низким доходом. Глобальное потепление не значимо влияет на уменьшение годовых сумм скачков температуры (давления). Факторный анализ социальных и климатических переменных на территории за каждый год свидетельствует о доминировании влияния социального фактора (среднедушевого дохода) на смертность населения от БСК.
Заключение. Факторный анализ интегрированных в годовом масштабе климатических и социальных переменных показал доминирующее воздействие на коэффициент смертности населения от БСК, фактора уровня жизни (среднедушевой доход населения). Затем значимость факторов воздействия последовательно понижается: отрицательные скачки атмосферного давления, среднее сезонное давление, уровень здравоохранения, положительные скачки давления. Значимость температурных переменных наименьшая.
Ключевые слова: болезни системы кровообращения, скачки температуры воздуха (атмосферного давления), коэффициент смертности населения, изменение климата, регионы России.
Materials and methods. According to station data and data of reanalysis, seasonal and annual amounts of day-to-day jumps in air temperature were calculated more than the absolute value of 4° and 6°C and the atmospheric pressure more than the absolute value of 8 GPa. The links between climate variables and the mortality rate of the population, taking into account social factors, were investigated using factor analysis, including regression and variance analyses.
Results. Annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps of different signs vary greatly on the territory: the maximum amounts are 3-4 times higher than the minimum ones. The geographical distribution of air temperature fluctuations differs from the distribution of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. The sum of temperature jumps in the absolute value of more than 6°C is about twice less than the sum of jumps more than 4°C, but they are characterized by similarity of geographical distribution. The sum of the jumps of temperature (pressure) is reduced during the summer is approximately two times compared to the winter. The maximum jumps are observed mainly in the Northern regions with low population density, but with high per capita income, while the minimum is observed in the South-Western parts of the European part of the country with high population density, as well as middle and low income. Global warming does not significantly affect the reduction of annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps. Factor analysis of social and climatic variables in the territory for each year indicates the dominance of the influence of the social factor (per capita income) on the mortality rate from CSD.
Conclusion. Factor analysis is integrated in the annual scale climatic and social variables showed a dominant effect on the coefficient of mortality from CSD, the factor of standard of living (per capita income of the population). Then the significance of the impact factors is consistently reduced: negative atmospheric pressure jumps, average seasonal pressure, health care level, positive pressure jumps. The significance of temperature variables is the smallest.
Keywords: diseases of the circulatory system, air temperature (atmospheric pressure) jumps, mortality rate, climate change, regions of Russia.
Материалы и методы. По станционным данным и данным реанализа рассчитывали сезонные и годовые суммы междусуточных скачков температуры воздуха больше по абсолютной величине 4° и 6°С и атмосферного давления больше по абсолютной величине 8 гПа. Связи между климатическими переменными и коэффициентом смертности населения, с учетом социальных факторов, исследовали с помощью факторного анализа, включающего регрессионный и дисперсионный анализы.
Результаты. Годовые суммы скачков температуры (давления) разного знака сильно варьируют на территории: максимальные суммы в 3–4 раза превышают минимальные. Географическое распределение скачков температуры воздуха отличается от распределения скачков атмосферного давления. Суммы скачков температуры по абсолютной величине более 6°С примерно в два раза меньше суммы скачков более 4°С, но для них характерно сходство географического распределения. Сумма скачков температуры (давления) снижается летом примерно в два раза по сравнению с зимой. Максимальные суммы скачков наблюдаются преимущественно в северных регионах с низкой плотностью населения, но с высоким среднедушевым доходом, в то же время как минимальные наблюдаются в юго-западных районах Европейской части страны с высокой плотностью населения, а также со средним и низким доходом. Глобальное потепление не значимо влияет на уменьшение годовых сумм скачков температуры (давления). Факторный анализ социальных и климатических переменных на территории за каждый год свидетельствует о доминировании влияния социального фактора (среднедушевого дохода) на смертность населения от БСК.
Заключение. Факторный анализ интегрированных в годовом масштабе климатических и социальных переменных показал доминирующее воздействие на коэффициент смертности населения от БСК, фактора уровня жизни (среднедушевой доход населения). Затем значимость факторов воздействия последовательно понижается: отрицательные скачки атмосферного давления, среднее сезонное давление, уровень здравоохранения, положительные скачки давления. Значимость температурных переменных наименьшая.
Ключевые слова: болезни системы кровообращения, скачки температуры воздуха (атмосферного давления), коэффициент смертности населения, изменение климата, регионы России.
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Materials and methods. According to station data and data of reanalysis, seasonal and annual amounts of day-to-day jumps in air temperature were calculated more than the absolute value of 4° and 6°C and the atmospheric pressure more than the absolute value of 8 GPa. The links between climate variables and the mortality rate of the population, taking into account social factors, were investigated using factor analysis, including regression and variance analyses.
Results. Annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps of different signs vary greatly on the territory: the maximum amounts are 3-4 times higher than the minimum ones. The geographical distribution of air temperature fluctuations differs from the distribution of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. The sum of temperature jumps in the absolute value of more than 6°C is about twice less than the sum of jumps more than 4°C, but they are characterized by similarity of geographical distribution. The sum of the jumps of temperature (pressure) is reduced during the summer is approximately two times compared to the winter. The maximum jumps are observed mainly in the Northern regions with low population density, but with high per capita income, while the minimum is observed in the South-Western parts of the European part of the country with high population density, as well as middle and low income. Global warming does not significantly affect the reduction of annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps. Factor analysis of social and climatic variables in the territory for each year indicates the dominance of the influence of the social factor (per capita income) on the mortality rate from CSD.
Conclusion. Factor analysis is integrated in the annual scale climatic and social variables showed a dominant effect on the coefficient of mortality from CSD, the factor of standard of living (per capita income of the population). Then the significance of the impact factors is consistently reduced: negative atmospheric pressure jumps, average seasonal pressure, health care level, positive pressure jumps. The significance of temperature variables is the smallest.
Keywords: diseases of the circulatory system, air temperature (atmospheric pressure) jumps, mortality rate, climate change, regions of Russia.
Список литературы
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13. Saez M, Sunyer J, Tobias A, Ballester F, Antó JM. Ischaemic heart disease and weather temperature in Barcelona, Spain. European Journal of Public Health. 2000; 10: 58-63. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/10.1.58
14. Rocklöv J, Forsberg B. The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998-2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scand J Public Health. 2008; 36(5):516-23. doi: 10.1177/ 1403494807088458.
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17. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X. A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality. PLoS ONE. 2011; 6 (2): 16511. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016511.
18. Kim J, Shin J, Lim YH, Honda Y, Hashizume M, Guo YL, Kan H, Yi S, Kim H. Comprehensive approach to understand the association between diurnal temperature range and mortality in East Asia. Sci Total Environ. 2015; 539:313-321. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.134.
19. Freeman JW, McGlashan ND, Loughhead MG. Temperature and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in a temperate climate. Am Heart J. 1976; 92(3): 405-407. doi:10.1016/S0002-8703(76)80124-X.
20. Spencer FA, Goldberg RJ, Becker RC, Gore JM. Seasonal distribution of acute myocardial infarction in the Second National Registry of Myocardial Infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1998; 31 (6): 1226-1233. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0735-1097(98)00098-9
21. Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009. Int J Biometeorology. 2014; 58(6):1327-37. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0735-y.
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2. [Mironovskaya AV, Unguryanu TN, Gudkov AB. The role of natural climatic and environmental factors in the occurrence of emergency conditions on the part of the circulatory organs: time series analysis. Ekologiya cheloveka. 2010; 9:13-17. (In Russ.)].
3. [Revich BA, Maleev VV. Climate change and human health in Russia: situation Analysis and forecast evaluation. LENAND. 2011; 208. (In Russ.)].
4. Roger VL, Go AS, Lloyd-Jones DM, Benjamin EJ, Berry JD, Borden WB, Bravata DM, Dai S, Ford ES, Fox CS, Fullerton HJ, Gillespie C, Hailpern SM, Heit JA, Howard VJ, Kissella BM, Kittner SJ, Lackland DT, Lichtman JH, Lisabeth LD, Makus DM, Marcus GM, Marelly A, Matchar DB, Moy CS, Mozaffarian D, Mussolino ME, Nichol G, Paynter NP, Soliman EZ, Sorlie PD, Sotoodehnia N, Turan TN, Virani SS, Wong ND, Woo D, Turner MB; on behalf of the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittiee. Heart disease and stroke statistics – 2012 update: a report from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2012; 125:2-220. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1161/CIR.0b013e3182456d46
5. [Kozlovskaya IL, Bulkina OS, Lopuhova VV, Kolmalova TE, Karpov YA, Starostin IV, Baratashvili VL, Rubinshtein KG, Emelina SV, Borovikov VP. Dynamics of hospitalizations in patients with acute coronary syndrome and indicators of the state of the atmosphere in Moscow in 2009-2012. Terapevticheskiy arkhiv. 2014; 12:20-26. (In Russ.)]. doi:10.17116/terarkh2014861220-26.
6. [Rusanov VI. Methods of research of climate for the medical purposes. Tomsk. Univ. press. 1973; 191. (In Russ.)]
7. Danet S, Richard F, Montaye M. Unhealthy Effects of Atmospheric Temperature and Pressure on the Occurrence of Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Deaths. A 10-YearSurvey: The Lille-World Health Organization MONICA Project (Monitoring Trendsand Determinantsin Cardiovascular Disease). Circulation. 1999; 100 (1): 1-7. doi: http:// dx.doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.100.1.e1
8. Kloner RA, Poole WK, Perritt RL. When Throughout the Year Is Coronary Death Most Likely to Occur? A 12-Year Population Based Analysis of More Than 220 000 Cases. Circulation. 1999; 100: 1630-1634. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.100.15.1630
9. Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: A review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev. 2002; 24:190-202. doi: 10.1093/epirev/mxf007
10. Panagiotakos C, Chrysohoou C, Tentolotius C. Climatological variations in daily hospital admissions for acute coronary syndromes. Int J Cardiol. 2004; 94: 229-233. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard. 2003.04.050
11. Hopstock LA, Fors AS, Bønaa KH, Mannsverk J, Njølstad I, Wilsgaard T. The effect of daily weather conditions on myocardial infarction incidence in a subarctic population: the Tromsø Study 1974–2004. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011; 66:815-820. doi:10.1136/ jech. 2010.131458.
12. Wasserman EB, Zareba W, Utell MJ. Acute changes in ambient temperature are associated with adverse changes in cardiac rhythm. Air Qual Atmos Health. 2014; 7 (1): 215-224. doi: 10.1007/s11869-014-0244-0
13. Saez M, Sunyer J, Tobias A, Ballester F, Antó JM. Ischaemic heart disease and weather temperature in Barcelona, Spain. European Journal of Public Health. 2000; 10: 58-63. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/10.1.58
14. Rocklöv J, Forsberg B. The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998-2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scand J Public Health. 2008; 36(5):516-23. doi: 10.1177/ 1403494807088458.
15. Kysely J, Pokorna L, Kyncl J, Kriz B. Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic. BMC Public Health. 2009; 9:19. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-19.
16. Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2005. Int J Biometeorol. 2010; 54:539. doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0303-7.
17. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X. A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality. PLoS ONE. 2011; 6 (2): 16511. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016511.
18. Kim J, Shin J, Lim YH, Honda Y, Hashizume M, Guo YL, Kan H, Yi S, Kim H. Comprehensive approach to understand the association between diurnal temperature range and mortality in East Asia. Sci Total Environ. 2015; 539:313-321. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.134.
19. Freeman JW, McGlashan ND, Loughhead MG. Temperature and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in a temperate climate. Am Heart J. 1976; 92(3): 405-407. doi:10.1016/S0002-8703(76)80124-X.
20. Spencer FA, Goldberg RJ, Becker RC, Gore JM. Seasonal distribution of acute myocardial infarction in the Second National Registry of Myocardial Infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1998; 31 (6): 1226-1233. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0735-1097(98)00098-9
21. Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009. Int J Biometeorology. 2014; 58(6):1327-37. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0735-y.
22. [Roshydromet second assessment report on climate change and its consequences in the Russian Federation, 2014. The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia. 2014; 1003 p. (In Russ.)]
23. Balbus JA, Crimmins JL, Gamble DR, Easterling KE, Kunkel SSaha, Sarofim MC. Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate Change and Human Health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. 2016;25-42. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/ JOVXODFW.
24. [Kim J, Mueller CW. Factor analysis: statistical methods and practical issues/ Collection of works «Factor, discriminant and cluster analysis». Ed. Yenyukova I.S. Finances and Statistics. 1989; 215. (In Russ.)]
2. Мироновская А.В., Унгуряну Т.Н., Гудков А.Б. Роль природно-климатических и экологических факторов в возникновении неотложных состояний сердечно-сосудистой системы: анализ временного ряда. Экология человека. 2010; 9:13-17. [Mironovskaya AV, Unguryanu TN, Gudkov AB. The role of natural climatic and environmental factors in the occurrence of emergency conditions on the part of the circulatory organs: time series analysis. Ekologiya cheloveka. 2010; 9:13-17. (In Russ.)].
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8. Kloner RA, Poole WK, Perritt RL. When Throughout the Year Is Coronary Death Most Likely to Occur? A 12-Year Population Based Analysis of More Than 220 000 Cases. Circulation. 1999; 100: 1630-1634. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.100.15.1630
9. Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: A review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev. 2002; 24:190-202. doi: 10.1093/epirev/mxf007
10. Panagiotakos C, Chrysohoou C, Tentolotius C. Climatological variations in daily hospital admissions for acute coronary syndromes. Int J Cardiol. 2004; 94: 229-233. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard. 2003.04.050
11. Hopstock LA, Fors AS, Bønaa KH, Mannsverk J, Njølstad I, Wilsgaard T. The effect of daily weather conditions on myocardial infarction incidence in a subarctic population: the Tromsø Study 1974–2004. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011; 66:815-820. doi:10.1136/ jech. 2010.131458.
12. Wasserman EB, Zareba W, Utell MJ. Acute changes in ambient temperature are associated with adverse changes in cardiac rhythm. Air Qual Atmos Health. 2014; 7 (1): 215-224. doi: 10.1007/s11869-014-0244-0
13. Saez M, Sunyer J, Tobias A, Ballester F, Antó JM. Ischaemic heart disease and weather temperature in Barcelona, Spain. European Journal of Public Health. 2000; 10: 58-63. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/10.1.58
14. Rocklöv J, Forsberg B. The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998-2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scand J Public Health. 2008; 36(5):516-23. doi: 10.1177/ 1403494807088458.
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17. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X. A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality. PLoS ONE. 2011; 6 (2): 16511. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016511.
18. Kim J, Shin J, Lim YH, Honda Y, Hashizume M, Guo YL, Kan H, Yi S, Kim H. Comprehensive approach to understand the association between diurnal temperature range and mortality in East Asia. Sci Total Environ. 2015; 539:313-321. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.134.
19. Freeman JW, McGlashan ND, Loughhead MG. Temperature and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in a temperate climate. Am Heart J. 1976; 92(3): 405-407. doi:10.1016/S0002-8703(76)80124-X.
20. Spencer FA, Goldberg RJ, Becker RC, Gore JM. Seasonal distribution of acute myocardial infarction in the Second National Registry of Myocardial Infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1998; 31 (6): 1226-1233. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0735-1097(98)00098-9
21. Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009. Int J Biometeorology. 2014; 58(6):1327-37. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0735-y.
22. Второй оценочный доклад Росгидромета об изменениях климата и их последствиях на территории Российской Федерации. Федеральная служба по гидрометеорологии и мониторингу окружающей среды. 2014; 1003. [Roshydromet second assessment report on climate change and its consequences in the Russian Federation, 2014. The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia. 2014; 1003 p. (In Russ.)]
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________________________________________________
2. [Mironovskaya AV, Unguryanu TN, Gudkov AB. The role of natural climatic and environmental factors in the occurrence of emergency conditions on the part of the circulatory organs: time series analysis. Ekologiya cheloveka. 2010; 9:13-17. (In Russ.)].
3. [Revich BA, Maleev VV. Climate change and human health in Russia: situation Analysis and forecast evaluation. LENAND. 2011; 208. (In Russ.)].
4. Roger VL, Go AS, Lloyd-Jones DM, Benjamin EJ, Berry JD, Borden WB, Bravata DM, Dai S, Ford ES, Fox CS, Fullerton HJ, Gillespie C, Hailpern SM, Heit JA, Howard VJ, Kissella BM, Kittner SJ, Lackland DT, Lichtman JH, Lisabeth LD, Makus DM, Marcus GM, Marelly A, Matchar DB, Moy CS, Mozaffarian D, Mussolino ME, Nichol G, Paynter NP, Soliman EZ, Sorlie PD, Sotoodehnia N, Turan TN, Virani SS, Wong ND, Woo D, Turner MB; on behalf of the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittiee. Heart disease and stroke statistics – 2012 update: a report from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2012; 125:2-220. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1161/CIR.0b013e3182456d46
5. [Kozlovskaya IL, Bulkina OS, Lopuhova VV, Kolmalova TE, Karpov YA, Starostin IV, Baratashvili VL, Rubinshtein KG, Emelina SV, Borovikov VP. Dynamics of hospitalizations in patients with acute coronary syndrome and indicators of the state of the atmosphere in Moscow in 2009-2012. Terapevticheskiy arkhiv. 2014; 12:20-26. (In Russ.)]. doi:10.17116/terarkh2014861220-26.
6. [Rusanov VI. Methods of research of climate for the medical purposes. Tomsk. Univ. press. 1973; 191. (In Russ.)]
7. Danet S, Richard F, Montaye M. Unhealthy Effects of Atmospheric Temperature and Pressure on the Occurrence of Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Deaths. A 10-YearSurvey: The Lille-World Health Organization MONICA Project (Monitoring Trendsand Determinantsin Cardiovascular Disease). Circulation. 1999; 100 (1): 1-7. doi: http:// dx.doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.100.1.e1
8. Kloner RA, Poole WK, Perritt RL. When Throughout the Year Is Coronary Death Most Likely to Occur? A 12-Year Population Based Analysis of More Than 220 000 Cases. Circulation. 1999; 100: 1630-1634. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.100.15.1630
9. Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: A review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev. 2002; 24:190-202. doi: 10.1093/epirev/mxf007
10. Panagiotakos C, Chrysohoou C, Tentolotius C. Climatological variations in daily hospital admissions for acute coronary syndromes. Int J Cardiol. 2004; 94: 229-233. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard. 2003.04.050
11. Hopstock LA, Fors AS, Bønaa KH, Mannsverk J, Njølstad I, Wilsgaard T. The effect of daily weather conditions on myocardial infarction incidence in a subarctic population: the Tromsø Study 1974–2004. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011; 66:815-820. doi:10.1136/ jech. 2010.131458.
12. Wasserman EB, Zareba W, Utell MJ. Acute changes in ambient temperature are associated with adverse changes in cardiac rhythm. Air Qual Atmos Health. 2014; 7 (1): 215-224. doi: 10.1007/s11869-014-0244-0
13. Saez M, Sunyer J, Tobias A, Ballester F, Antó JM. Ischaemic heart disease and weather temperature in Barcelona, Spain. European Journal of Public Health. 2000; 10: 58-63. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/10.1.58
14. Rocklöv J, Forsberg B. The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998-2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scand J Public Health. 2008; 36(5):516-23. doi: 10.1177/ 1403494807088458.
15. Kysely J, Pokorna L, Kyncl J, Kriz B. Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic. BMC Public Health. 2009; 9:19. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-19.
16. Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2005. Int J Biometeorol. 2010; 54:539. doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0303-7.
17. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X. A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality. PLoS ONE. 2011; 6 (2): 16511. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016511.
18. Kim J, Shin J, Lim YH, Honda Y, Hashizume M, Guo YL, Kan H, Yi S, Kim H. Comprehensive approach to understand the association between diurnal temperature range and mortality in East Asia. Sci Total Environ. 2015; 539:313-321. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.134.
19. Freeman JW, McGlashan ND, Loughhead MG. Temperature and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in a temperate climate. Am Heart J. 1976; 92(3): 405-407. doi:10.1016/S0002-8703(76)80124-X.
20. Spencer FA, Goldberg RJ, Becker RC, Gore JM. Seasonal distribution of acute myocardial infarction in the Second National Registry of Myocardial Infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1998; 31 (6): 1226-1233. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0735-1097(98)00098-9
21. Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009. Int J Biometeorology. 2014; 58(6):1327-37. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0735-y.
22. [Roshydromet second assessment report on climate change and its consequences in the Russian Federation, 2014. The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia. 2014; 1003 p. (In Russ.)]
23. Balbus JA, Crimmins JL, Gamble DR, Easterling KE, Kunkel SSaha, Sarofim MC. Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate Change and Human Health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. 2016;25-42. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/ JOVXODFW.
24. [Kim J, Mueller CW. Factor analysis: statistical methods and practical issues/ Collection of works «Factor, discriminant and cluster analysis». Ed. Yenyukova I.S. Finances and Statistics. 1989; 215. (In Russ.)]
Авторы
А.Н. ЗОЛОТОКРЫЛИН, Т.Б. ТИТКОВА, Д.Д. БОКУЧАВА
Институт географии Российской академии наук, Москва, Россия
Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Институт географии Российской академии наук, Москва, Россия
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Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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